2019-nCoV from WHO as exponential regression
Let’s play with 2019-nCoV from WHO.
We had a bit data from WHO here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
We can extract from it that number of cases was:
44 cases at 3rd day of the year
282 cases at 20th day of the year
314 cases at 21st day of the year
581 cases at 22nd day of the year
846 cases at 24th day of the year
1320 cases at 25th day of the year
2014 [was predicted as 1843, error 9.2%] as 26th day of the year
2798 [was predicted as 2950, error 5.1%] as 27th day of the year
It looks like exponential regression, isn’t it?
Let use WolframAlpha to draw it: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B%283%2C44%29%2C%2820%2C282%29%2C%2821%2C314%29%2C%2823%2C581%29%2C%2824%2C846%29%2C%2825%2C1320%29%2C%2826%2C2014%29%7D
Well, we have a formula: 0.0671343 e^(0.395955 x)
Let replace x to some days in the near future:
1st February (32nd day): 21,364 cases
14th February (45th day): 3.7 millions cases
1st March (60th day): 1.4 billions cases
5th March (64th day): about 7 billions cases
Congrats, everyone is infected!
